MIAMI — A broad area of low pressure drifting toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to become the season’s next named storm, but it will deliver classic summertime downpours just as South Florida lights its Independence Day fireworks.
Formation odds: The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance a low 20 % chance of organizing into a tropical or subtropical depression within seven days.
Holiday forecast: The Miami forecast office calls for a 60–70 % probability of showers and thunderstorms on July 4, with highs near 88 °F and sticky South-southwest breezes.
What that means: Even without a named storm, slow-moving tropical moisture can trigger brief street flooding, lightning and last-minute event delays.
Colorado State University projects 17 named storms and nine hurricanes this year—above the long-term norm.
NOAA’s forecast is similar, calling for up to 19 storms amid a warm Atlantic and a likely La Niña pattern that favors development.
The Atlantic has already seen Tropical Storm Andrea, a short-lived system that formed and dissipated in late June without threatening land.
Research shows South Florida’s greatest hurricane danger comes between August and October, with a notable spike in October landfalls. Even a single late-season hurricane can reshape communities, emergency managers warn. Staying storm-ready—supplies, insurance checks, evacuation plans—remains essential throughout the June 1-Nov 30 season.
Plan for wet fireworks, monitor forecasts daily, and remember that a “low” development chance today can still produce soaking rains—and tomorrow’s storm could be stronger.
Back